PMP^® test Preparation, an in-depth review course, is the second online course in this series after Project Management Essentials, offered by Purdue University Online. This offering assumes you already meet the criteria necessary to qualify to take the exam. You must be an experienced project manager (minimum 3 years). Before you may qualify to take the PMP exam, the Project Management Institute (PMI) requires that you have at least 35 hours of project management education. This course assumes you are already familiar with the content of the PMBOK^® Guide. If you feel like you need a refresher on the content of the PMBOK^® Guide, taking the Project Management Essentials course first, is strongly suggested. Please visit the PMI website for details about PMI’s PMP test prerequisites.

Course Overview

PMP test Preparation is a 100% online, self-study course based on the PMBOK^® Guide. It includes a series of live webinars presented by your instructor for in-depth review of some of the most challenging learning material.

Enrollment includes 90-day access to all of the Purdue-developed course material, including lecture videos, worksheets/answer keys, and multiple test-taking tips and strategies. Purdue also provides complimentary 90-day access to the PMtraining^™ online practice questions website (a $59 value).

Certification

PMI’s PMP exam consists of 180 multiple-choice, multiple response, matching, hotspot and limited fill-in-the-blank questions. The test is demanding and students must engage in independent study following the course to pass.

Only individuals who pass PMI’s PMP test are officially certified as a Project Management Professional^®. A certificate of achievement from Purdue University, however, is awarded to students who successfully complete the PMP test prep course.

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July 27, 2022 (Investorideas.com Newswire) Gold is a commodity with limited supply, therefore it cannot be "created" by simply printing a piece of paper; it must be mined and processed into gold bars or coins. Therefore, gold's value stays fairly stable over a long period of time, making it an ideal hedge against inflation, which makes fiat money "cheaper".

And because gold carries no credit or counterparty risks, it is trustworthy in all economic environments, making it one of the most crucial reserve assets worldwide. An added appeal for gold is its inverse relationship with the US dollar, the reserve currency; so long as the dollar is falling and gold is climbing.

Today, central banks hold more than 35,000 metric tons of the metal, which equates to about a fifth of all the gold ever mined. This is also the largest amount of gold maintained in global reserves since 1990.

The leading gold holders are some of the world's most powerful nations, such as the US, Germany, Italy and France, all of which are keeping 60% of their foreign reserves as gold. This is a testament to the significance of gold in the central banking system.

If gold is so great as an inflation hedge, many must be wondering why the gold price has languished in the face of inflation levels last seen 40 years ago, in the early 1980s.

US inflation. Source: Trading Economics

The answer, of course, is the Fed. The US Federal Reserve started off declaring that historically high levels of inflation were "transitory", and would go away with the resolution of covid-related supply chain bottlenecks. When inflation rocketed from 5.4% a year ago to 8.5% in March, then 9.1% in June, all the Fed's talk of transitory inflation dissipated, and its strategy switched to fighting inflation through a series of aggressive interest rate hikes.

The "tightening" policy hasn't worked, so far. Inflation has actually accelerated since the Fed began raising rates in March, prompting officials to hike them by a half-percentage point that month, instead of the earlier 25 basis-point expectation, and 75 basis points in June rather than the 50 points the Fed thought would be sufficient. Now, the central bank is targeting another 0.75% increase in July when the Federal Open Market Committee meets this Wednesday.

It has certainly been disappointing to watch the gold price, and gold mining company valuations, crumble since March. Yet those who think that gold's appeal has been permanently tarnished due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate increases, should consider this:

Ultimately gold is a monetary metal that performs best during times of weak (weakening) economic growth and increasing money supply, as fiscal and monetary policy actors attempt to counter economic weakness through lowering the price of money and stimulating demand. This is what we witnessed from the end of March 2020 through late-2021.

Source: StockCharts.com

As the chart above shows, from January 1, 2019 to its August, 2020 peak of $2,034 an ounce, gold rose more than 60%! @Goldfinger notes that even after gold's relative decline, it is still up around 10% from the very start of the pandemic in January, 2020, when spot gold was down around $1,570.

Also consider that gold's meteoric rise in 2020 corresponded with a major expansion of the money supply globally, as many central banks engaged in "quantitative easing" during the covid-19-induced recession. QE involves the purchase of government bonds by "printing money". At the same time, central banks dropped their interest rates to near zero, to encourage borrowing and economic activity. Low interest rates and expansionary monetary policy are always good for gold. In other words, the gold price behaved exactly as it was supposed to!

As for the current situation, it's no surprise that rising interest rates have dented the gold price, since higher yields make income-generating assets like bonds a better option than gold, which offers neither a yield nor a dividend. Although, in most countries, the real interest rate (rate minus inflation) is still deeply negative, which for gold is a bullish price signal.

Inevitably the future gold price will turn on what happens with interest rates at the Federal Reserve, since the Fed controls monetary policy for the largest economy in the world and the biggest gold holder.

Fed pivot

Gold skeptics point to continually rising interest rates as a good reason to stay away from the precious metal. But increasing rates only makes sense if the economy can handle them; at a certain point, especially if the economy is weak, high inflation plus high interest rates will squeeze economic growth, prompting the Fed to reverse course, and begin lowering interest rates again. 

There is ample evidence to show we are closer to this point than many think, and that the Fed could switch to lowering rates as early as the fall.

Frank Holmes, CEO of US Global Investors, and a respected gold market commentator, recently gave two reasons he thinks the Fed will "hit the panic button" and start cutting interest rates by American Thanksgiving. The first relates to supply shortages, and the second is the deteriorating Producers' Manufacturing Index (PMI), a leading indicator of economic health.

According to Holmes, "Climate change is basically embedding inflation." He refers to ill-conceived policies such as shutting down nuclear power plants in Spain and Germany, and taxing gas-powered cars and trucks. ESG (and friend-shoring) policies can cause supply shortages and more money-printing, as governments seek capital for green energy schemes. This leads to more inflation. Holmes pointed to Sri Lanka's latest political upheaval as an example, telling David Lam of Kitco News, "They forced organic food everywhere in Sri Lanka, and they got a 20 to 30% drop in production. Inflation went through the roof, and there are already huge riots in the streets."

Holmes suggests that widespread civil unrest, including in the States, could trigger the Fed to reduce interest rates. "All we have to do is get a big protest like they're having in Europe… there's a trend that's going on in countries around the world," he explained.

As for the PMI, Holmes said, "The PMI is shrinking globally. If the world [economy] all of a sudden starts contracting, panic buttons will set off and there will be a spigot open of more money printing."

Weak economic indicators

It's not only the Producers' Manufacturing Index that is showing weakness, as high inflation impacts customers' ability to pay, and higher interest rates make borrowing more expensive. As the chart below shows, the US Private Sector PMI, known formally as the S&P Global Flash US PMI Composite Output Index, fell for the first time in over two years (26 months), led by services.

Manufacturers and service providers both reported subdued demand conditions.

"The preliminary PMI data for July point to a worrying deterioration in the economy. Excluding pandemic lockdown months, output is falling at a rate not seen since 2009 amid the global financial crisis, with the survey data indicative of GDP falling at an annualized rate of approximately 1%. Manufacturing has stalled and the service sector's rebound from the pandemic has gone into reverse, as the tailwind of pent-up demand has been overcome by the rising cost of living, higher interest rates and growing gloom about the economic outlook," said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence. He added:

"An increased rate of order book deterioration, with backlogs of work dropping sharply in July, reflects an excess of operating capacity relative to demand growth and points to output across both manufacturing and services being cut back further in coming months unless demand revives. However, with companies' expectations of future growth slumping to the lowest since the early days of the pandemic, any such revival is not being anticipated. Instead, firms are already reassessing their production and workforce needs, resulting in slower employment growth."

The S&P PMI confirmed figures that came out last week from the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, showing the index plunged for the fourth straight month. Even more worrying was the gauge of future economic activity, with -18.6 indicating the worst practicing since 1979.

Source: Mish Talk

Mish Talk remarks, "In case you did not believe it before, this report should make it clear. A recession has started. The only questions are how deep and how long."

If we are already in a recession, or close to it, one would think that would influence the Federal Open Market Committee's rumored decision to raise interest rates by 75 basis points this week, or an even more aggressive 100 bps.

Bankrate notes that hiking interest rates a full percentage point would mark the first time the Fed has done this since the early 1980s, when the Fed led by Paul Volcker raised rates so high and so quickly that it caused the 1982 recession, one of the worst on record.

The website also makes the interesting observation that, Assuming the Fed hikes rates by its originally expected 75-basis-point increment, borrowing costs will be back at 2018 levels and on the verge of restraining economic growth for the first time in nearly three years.

Fed officials often cite the low unemployment level as evidence the US economy is in good enough shape for it to notch interest rates higher. While the number of unemployed is at a half-century low, and claims have remained stable, Bankrate reports they are drifting up:

[T]he labor market looks like it's hitting a slowdown. Major companies from Apple to Google have slowed hiring plans; some companies like Shopify are yanking internship offers. Coupled with record-low consumer sentiment, job security looks like it could be taking a turn.

Economists see a sharp slowdown in job growth of 193,000 on average over the next 12 months, while the unemployment rate could edge up to 4.2% from 3.6%, according to Bankrate's poll of the nation's top economists.

Moreover, economists in Bankrate's Second-Quarter Economic Indicator poll put the chances of a recession in the next 12-18 months at 52%, on account of the Fed's more aggressive stance.

"The Fed itself doesn't know when it's going to stop," Michael Farr, founder and CEO of Farr, Miller and Washington, a DC-based investment advisory firm, told the personal finance website.

"Peak inflation to me is like saying, ‘This is as hot as the forest fire is going to get.' But that doesn't change my plans if I have a house just over the next hill. They really want to see the forest fire go out, and until then, they'll continue raising rates, markets will remain volatile and the risks are significant."

A separate poll by Reuters found a 40% likelihood of a recession over the next year, and 50% within two years.

If that isn't enough to convince you a recession is coming, it's written in the charts.

In a typical healthy market, the yield curve (typically the spread between the US 10-year Treasury note and the 2-year note) shows lower returns on short-term investments and higher yields on long-term investments. This makes sense, as investors earn more interest for tying up their money for longer. The yield curve is said to "invert" when short-term yields are higher than long-term yields.

The yield curve has inverted 28 times since 1900, and in 22 of those times, a recession followed. For the last six recessions, a recession began six to 36 months after the curve inverted.

In a latest article, Real Investment Advice notes there are two indicators warning of a recession, both of which have near-perfect track records. The first is that currently, 50% of the 10-year spreads they track are inverted, as the chart below shows.

Source: Real Investment Advice

The second is the Leading Economic Index's 6-month annual rate of change. According to RIA, the chart below showing the 6-month rate of change turning negative, either precedes outright recessions or near-recessionary environments.

Source: Real Investment Advice

When could they stop raising?

The Fed's preferred inflation measure is currently running at a four-decade high of 6%, roughly triple its 2% target. If the Fed raises its expected 75 basis-points Wednesday, that would take its benchmark overnight interest rate to a target range of 2.25% to 2.5%, lifting rates to a level officials see as "neutral", i.e., no longer supporting the economy over the long run.

A Reuters story quoted Luke Tilley, chief economist at Wilmington Trust, saying that "As long as inflation is as high as it is, and no sign of abating, you are going to have a united front," referring to the Fed's decision-makers who must make the call on interest rates. He noted that it may take as little as two months of slowing inflation for "the hawks and the doves … to make themselves known pretty quickly."

The article goes on to say that, While financial markets have priced in higher rates – exemplified by rises in the cost of a 30-year fixed mortgage – they also see an increased risk of recession and, as a result, potential Fed rate cuts as soon as next year.

It notes consumers are already pulling back on spending due to prices rising faster than wages, with retail sales growth on an inflation-adjusted basis slowing to a crawl. The latest Conference Board survey shows consumer confidence slipping for a third straight month — something economists pay close attention to, given that consumer spending makes up about 70% of US Gross Domestic Product.

And finally, the observation that the last time the federal funds rate was in the 2.25-2.5% range, it was late 2018 following a string of rate hikes, but signs of economic weakness (like now) put a stop to further tightening and within eight months, the Fed was back to cutting rates.

According to the Reuters poll mentioned above with respect to the chances of a recession, a strong majority expects the Fed will slow its rate increases to 50 basis points in September, and then raise by only 25 bps at the November and December meetings.

The poll found a slowdown in economic growth would force the Fed to cut back on the size of rate hikes at future meetings. After contracting in the first quarter of this year, growth for the second quarter was penciled in at a seasonally adjusted, annualized 0.7%, down significantly from the 3% predicted last month. Over one in five respondents predicted another contraction. GDP growth this year was slashed to 2% from 2.6% forecast in June, and nearly halved to 1.2% for 2023, when the full effect of the Fed's rate hikes are felt in the economy, Reuters reported.

Over 80% of poll respondents saw the federal funds rate at 3.25-3.5% or higher by the end of this year. As for when the Fed will stop raising rates, the median forecast is 3.5-3.75% in the first quarter of 2023.

Gold and the dollar

Back to gold, one of the most powerful forces dragging the gold price down is the US dollar, currently strong due to rising interest rates and safe-haven demand. Over the past year, the US dollar index has climbed 16%. Gold, meanwhile, has fallen 19% since hitting $2,078 in early March.

Source: MarketWatch

The Federal Reserve approved a June interest-rate hike June of 0.75%, which is the largest rate increase since 1994. Investors have been buying greenbacks as a source of relative stability amid weak economic conditions. When foreign investors buy US equities and bonds, they typically use dollars, which boosts the value of the currency.

But market observers including Goldman Sachs say the dollar is "highly overvalued," and due for a correction. They also say it's unclear whether the buck's strength will hold in a recession. The Big Mac Index comparing the price of the hamburger around the world, shows that the greenback is overvalued against all but a handful of currencies.

One encouraging sign for gold investors is the European Central Bank's latest decision to raise interest rates, to fight inflation. The hawkish move will likely help ease the soaring dollar which earlier this month reached parity with the euro.

Gold & silver close to bottoming

Another is the reduction in gold short positioning among bullion banks and commercial traders, indicating that gold has been "oversold". Shorts are bets that the metal will lose value.

King World News ran a 10-year chart showing commercials covering their short positions, with accompanying commentary noting that It is possible the gold market may bottom here, but commercial traders typically have short positions of less than 100k at major bottoms and we are not quite there yet.

As shown in the chart, gold hedgers' last position was -112,262.

Source: King World News/ Sentimentrader

Kitco gold columnist David Erfle writes that, While the commercial banks can continue to cut their shorts, pushing the price lower, their current positioning is bullish. It is also important to note that once the small specs became net short in May 2019, the GDXJ moved up over 55% in just a few months from similar deeply oversold conditions that we are currently experiencing.

Erfle also presents data indicating that gold stocks are deeply oversold and that they could move forcefully to the upside. For example:

• [When] comparing the now 14-week sharp move down in gold stocks with the previous high-velocity decline in the sector in 2020, the capitulation phase of this 2-year correction is close to reaching its conclusion.
• When GDXJ sold down briefly just below the $29 level last Thursday, the junior miner ETF entered its most oversold condition in seven years. This high-risk junior gold stock fund has also held its long-term weekly support level at $30, showing relative strength to both gold and the GDX heading into Fed Week.
• More importantly, the Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index ($BPGDM) has moved below 11, which is the lowest practicing since the March 2020 spike low below 8. If this closely watched index goes down even further from here, it will likely sling-shot in the same way it did in early 2016 and March of 2020 climbing 202% and 189% in just a few months.
• [E]ither the already deeply oversold junior mining complex is in the process of carving out a bottom here, or we have just a bit more downside to the $26-$27 support level in GDXJ which could result in a sling-shot reversal to the upside.

The pain in the silver market could also soon see some relief. While the monetary and industrial metal is down substantially from a year ago (-36%), King World News points to the latest Silver Hedgers Position report as showing "The setup in the silver market has turned extremely bullish."

The chart below shows commercial traders "are now in one of the most bullish positions in the last decade." The second chart offers a multi-decade view of how bullion banks and commercial traders have been positioned in the silver market. "There is no question the setup in the silver market is extremely bullish at this point from a historic perspective," King World News writes, adding that "right now and on any further weakness it is a good idea to be extremely aggressive in accumulating physical silver."

Source: King World News/ Sentimentrader

Source: King World News/ Sentimentrader

Conclusion

I couldn't agree more, which is why we at AOTH have been busily accumulating a basket of quality gold and silver juniors to buy and hold before the next up-leg in the secular gold bull market begins.

Richard (Rick) Mills
aheadoftheherd.com
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Thinking of buying a home? There are plenty of perks if you purchase one. You can decorate it to suit your taste; you can install a professional home theater system; or you can perfectly customize the walk-in closet to hold everything you have, just the way you want it. But there are other benefits—the financial kind.

If you rented in the past, all of your money went to a landlord, and none of it came back to you as a tax deduction. That changes if you’re a homeowner. 

Whether you buy a mobile home, town house, condominium, co-operative apartment, or single-family home, several tax breaks can save you money at tax time.

The only downside is that your taxes will get more complicated. Gone are the days when you plug your W-2 information into the 1040EZ form and finish your taxes 10 minutes later. As a homeowner, you enter the wonderful world of itemizing. Of course, it’s worth the hassle when you see how much money you might save.

It is impossible for the country to run alone and answer the need for enormous job opportunities abroad. Hence, collaboration is important

"It is impossible for the country to run alone and answer the need for enormous job opportunities abroad. Hence, collaboration is important," he stated during a press conference after closing the Employment Business Meeting (EBM) in Badung, Bali, Wednesday.

BP2MI held an Employment Business Meeting in Bali on July 25-27, 2022, to connect Indonesian migrant worker placement companies (P3MI) with overseas employment providers, Indonesian representatives abroad, and other relevant parties, Rhamdani stated.

Related news: BP2MI continues to encourage placement of workers in formal sector

At the meeting, the participants explored opportunities for cooperation under the intergovernmental (G to G) and also inter-private (P to P) schemes, as well as exchanged information on placing Indonesian migrant workers through related regulations, he explained.

At the meeting, the BP2MI also convinced overseas employment agencies that the Indonesian migrant workers sent were skilled workers and had met the standards.

"To the employment agency, we had ensured that our migrant workers were qualified. The country would also be serious about placing skilled and professional workers, who have expertise according to the chosen job and have sufficient foreign language skills,” Rhamdani remarked.

Related news: BP2MI, 16 regions to cooperate to protect migrant workers

Hence, he urged overseas employment agencies to not hesitate to hire PMI since BP2MI had guaranteed their expertise and skills.

"Do not doubt their skills and professionalism since the PMIs are our country's dignity. We will not send workers, who do not meet the expectations of employment agencies abroad," he affirmed.

Until mid-2022, Rhamdani remarked that Indonesia had placed around 75 thousand migrant workers in 69 countries, including 481 PMIs to South Korea, under the intergovernmental cooperation (G to G) scheme this week.

With that figure, he is optimistic that by the end of the year, the number of PMIs dispatched abroad can reach hundreds of thousands of workers.

Related news: Government loan helps migrant workers prepare for work: BP2MI

Related news: Taiwan to raise wage for PMIs in domestic sector: BP2MI

Business Activity Index at 59.9%; New Orders Index at 59.9%; Employment Index at 49.1%; supplier Deliveries Index at 57.8%

TEMPE, Ariz., Aug. 3, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- Economic activity in the services sector grew in July for the 26th month in a row — with the Services PMI^® registering 56.7 percent — say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Services ISM^® Report On Business^®.

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management^® (ISM^®) Services Business Survey Committee: "In July, the Services PMI^® registered 56.7 percent, 1.4 percentage points higher than June's practicing of 55.3 percent. The Business Activity Index registered 59.9 percent, an increase of 3.8 percentage points compared to the practicing of 56.1 percent in June. The New Orders Index figure of 59.9 percent is 4.3 percentage points higher than the June practicing of 55.6 percent.

"The supplier Deliveries Index registered 57.8 percent, 4.1 percentage points lower than the 61.9 percent reported in June. (Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM^® Report On Business^® index that is inversed; a practicing of above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, which is typical as the economy improves and customer demand increases.)

"The Prices Index decreased for the third consecutive month in July, down 7.8 percentage points to 72.3 percent. Services businesses continue to struggle to replenish inventories, as the Inventories Index contracted for the second consecutive month; the practicing of 45 percent is down 2.5 percentage points from June's figure of 47.5 percent. The Inventory Sentiment Index (50.1 percent, up 3.9 percentage points from June's practicing of 46.2 percent) moved into expansion territory in July after four consecutive months of contraction."

Nieves continues, "According to the Services PMI^®, 13 industries reported growth. The composite index indicated growth for the 26th consecutive month after a two-month contraction in April and May 2020. Growth continues — at a faster rate — for the services sector, which has expanded for all but two of the last 150 months. The slight increase in services sector growth was due to an increase in business activity and new orders. The Employment Index (49.1 percent) contracted for the second consecutive month, and the Backlog of Orders Index decreased 2.2 percentage points, to 58.3 percent. Availability issues with overland trucking, a restricted labor pool, various material shortages and inflation continue to be impediments for the services sector."

Story continues

INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE
The 13 services industries reporting growth in July — listed in order — are: Mining; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Public Administration; Management of Companies & Support Services; Construction; Educational Services; Other Services; Utilities; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Transportation & Warehousing; Wholesale Trade; and Information. The three industries reporting a decrease in the month of July are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Retail Trade; and Finance & Insurance.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING

• "Restaurant sales have softened the past few weeks (due to) post-holiday and seasonality factors, but we're also hearing because of consumer pressures, particularly fuel and food prices. Staffing remains a challenge in some markets. Many of our locations in (Los Angeles County) received news that there could be a return to (indoor) mask mandates." [Accommodation & Food Services]

• "Interest rates have significantly impacted the homebuilding market. Cancellation rates have increased, as homebuyers can no longer afford the monthly payment. Traffic to our communities is down. Inflation has sidelined many would-be buyers." [Construction]

• "Strengthening market overall and signs of improvement. Increased prices putting a strain on fixed budgets. There has been a shift from driving down costs to securing continuity of supply. Higher education is growing, with an increase in applicants." [Educational Services]

• "Business continues to remain below pre-pandemic levels. (Patient) census and visits have increased but seem to have plateaued in the last six-month period." [Health Care & Social Assistance]

• "Can feel the economy weakening. Clients are making appropriate moves in anticipation of a recession." [Management of Companies & Support Services]

• "Hiring demand remains robust in most industry sectors. Tech has had a slowdown in hiring and layoffs. It's still a candidate's market, as the number of job openings across all skill levels and positions remains far greater than the number of candidates for those roles." [Professional, Scientific & Technical Services]

• "Rising costs across the board seems to be the big focus now. Fuel and food are the most common focus but it is across the board, and there is pressure of a job market shortage for qualified workers to increase wages and other benefits." [Public Administration]

• "(We are) in inventory reduction mode, attempting to match inventory levels to current lower sales trends." [Retail Trade]

• "Holding steady, but some headwinds are definitely ahead on the economic front. However, supply chain issues appear to be easing, though still not great." [Utilities]

• "Food service remains strong. Retail is softening as mass is overly concerned about inventory and consumer spending." [Wholesale Trade]

Services ISM^® Report On Business^® data is seasonally adjusted for the Business Activity, New Orders, Employment and Prices indexes. Manufacturing ISM^® Report On Business^® data is seasonally adjusted for New Orders, Production, Employment and Inventories indexes.
*Number of months moving in current direction.

COMMODITIES REPORTED UP/DOWN IN PRICE, AND IN SHORT SUPPLY

Commodities Up in Price
Aluminum Products* (8); Chemicals (4); Coated Freesheet; Computer Accessories; Diesel Fuel (20); Eggs; Electrical Components (18); Fuel* (19); Freight Rates; Gasoline (20); Hotel Rates (3); Heating, Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVAC) Equipment; Labor (20); Labor — Contingent; Medical Supplies; Steel Products (19); Transformers (2); Transportation Costs; Travel (3); and Utilities.

Commodities Down in Price
Aluminum Products*; Copper Wires; Fuel*; Lumber (2); Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) Conduit; and Steel.

Commodities in Short Supply
Appliances (5); Coated Freesheet; Computer Hardware; Electrical Components (4); Food and Beverages; Labor (12); Masks; Microchips (3); Needles and Syringes (7); Paper Products (5); Resin Based Products; Transformers (3); and Vehicles.

Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item. *Indicates both up and down in price.

JULY 2022 SERVICES INDEX SUMMARIES

Services PMI^®
In July, the Services PMI^® registered 56.7 percent, a 1.4-percentage point increase compared to the June practicing of 55.3 percent. The 12-month average is 60.2 percent, reflecting consistently strong growth in the services sector, which has expanded for 26 consecutive months. A practicing above 50 percent indicates the services sector economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates the services sector is generally contracting.

A Services PMI^® above 50.1 percent, over time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the July Services PMI^® indicates the overall economy has followed the same path as the services sector: expansion for 26 straight months following two months of contraction and a preceding period of 122 months of growth. Nieves says, "The past relationship between the Services PMI^® and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI^® for July (56.7 percent) corresponds to a 2.4-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis."

SERVICES PMI^® HISTORY

Business Activity
ISM^®'s Business Activity Index registered 59.9 percent in July, an increase of 3.8 percentage points from the practicing of 56.1 percent in June, indicating growth for the 26th consecutive month. Comments from respondents include: "With a new fiscal year starting on July 1, an uptick in demand of goods and services" and "Seeing more critical material come in, which allowed us to work on more projects."

The 13 industries reporting an increase in business activity for the month of July — listed in order — are: Mining; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Educational Services; Public Administration; Management of Companies & Support Services; Utilities; Construction; Other Services; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Wholesale Trade; Transportation & Warehousing; and Information. The four industries reporting a decrease in business activity for the month of July are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Accommodation & Food Services; Retail Trade; and Finance & Insurance.

New Orders
ISM^®'s New Orders Index registered 59.9 percent, up 4.3 percentage points from the June practicing of 55.6 percent. New orders grew for the 26th consecutive month after two months of contraction and a preceding period of 128 months of expansion. Comments from respondents include: "Requests for new business" and "Moderate volume increases over the previous month."

Eleven industries reported growth of new orders in July, in the following order: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Mining; Educational Services; Public Administration; Transportation & Warehousing; Other Services; Utilities; Management of Companies & Support Services; Construction; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Health Care & Social Assistance. The five industries reporting a decrease in new orders in July are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Accommodation & Food Services; Retail Trade; Information; and Wholesale Trade.

Employment
Employment activity in the services sector contracted in July for the fourth time in the last six months. ISM^®'s Employment Index registered 49.1 percent, up 1.7 percentage points from the June practicing of 47.4 percent. Comments from respondents include: "Employee turnover, backfills taking longer to locate and onboard" and "Difficulties hiring new candidates as we lose more people who retire or leave the company for new opportunities."

The eight industries reporting an increase in employment in July — listed in order — are: Mining; Construction; Accommodation & Food Services; Other Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Public Administration; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Wholesale Trade. The seven industries reporting a decrease in employment in July — listed in order — are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Finance & Insurance; Educational Services; Transportation & Warehousing; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Utilities; and Health Care & Social Assistance.

Supplier Deliveries
The supplier Deliveries Index registered 57.8 percent, down 4.1 percentage points from the 61.9 percent registered in June. A practicing above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, while a practicing below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries. Comments from respondents include: "Lack of drivers for delivery companies due to labor shortages" and "Global supply issues are causing uncertainty on when and how many products will arrive."

The 14 industries reporting slower deliveries in July — listed in order — are: Mining; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Finance & Insurance; Accommodation & Food Services; Educational Services; Construction; Utilities; Health Care & Social Assistance; Management of Companies & Support Services; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Public Administration; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Transportation & Warehousing; and Information. No industry reported faster deliveries in July.

Inventories
The Inventories Index contracted in July for the second consecutive month after four straight months of growth preceded by an eight-month period of contraction. The practicing of 45 percent was a 2.5-percentage point decrease from the 47.5 percent reported in June. Of the total respondents in July, 41 percent indicated they do not have inventories or do not measure them. Comments from respondents include: "Long lead times have consumed safety stock" and "Inventories are still lower than desired due to supply chain issues."

The seven industries reporting an increase in inventories in July — listed in order — are: Mining; Utilities; Wholesale Trade; Educational Services; Transportation & Warehousing; Public Administration; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. The 10 industries reporting a decrease in inventories in July — listed in order — are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Retail Trade; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Other Services; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Management of Companies & Support Services; Finance & Insurance; Health Care & Social Assistance; Construction; and Information.

Prices
Prices paid by services organizations for materials and services increased in July for the 62nd consecutive month, with the index registering 72.3 percent, 7.8 percentage points lower than the 80.1 percent recorded in June. This is the first Prices Index practicing below 80 percent since September 2021 and its steepest month-over-month decrease since an 8.7-percentage point drop in May 2017.

Sixteen services industries reported an increase in prices paid during the month of July, in the following order: Mining; Public Administration; Information; Accommodation & Food Services; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Educational Services; Finance & Insurance; Management of Companies & Support Services; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Transportation & Warehousing; Construction; Health Care & Social Assistance; Other Services; Utilities; and Wholesale Trade. No industry reported a decrease in prices in July.

NOTE: Commodities reported as up in price and down in price are listed in the commodities section of this report.

Backlog of Orders
The ISM^® Services Backlog of Orders Index grew in July for the 19th consecutive month. The index registered 58.3 percent, a 2.2-percentage point decrease compared to the June practicing of 60.5 percent. Of the total respondents in July, 40 percent indicated they do not measure backlog of orders. Respondent comments include: "Delays caused by long lead times for components" and "Higher backlog than previous month as suppliers try to keep up with orders and slowing deliveries."

The nine industries reporting an increase in order backlogs in July — listed in order — are: Accommodation & Food Services; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Other Services; Public Administration; Utilities; Educational Services; Retail Trade; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Health Care & Social Assistance. The five industries reporting a decrease in order backlogs in July are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Finance & Insurance; Construction; and Wholesale Trade.

New Export Orders
Orders and requests for services and other non-manufacturing activities to be provided outside of the U.S. by domestically based companies grew in July for the sixth consecutive month. The New Export Orders Index registered 59.5 percent, a 2-percentage point increase from the 57.5 percent reported in June. Of the total respondents in July, 79 percent indicated they do not perform, or do not separately measure, orders for work outside of the U.S.

The six industries reporting an increase in new export orders in July — listed in order — are: Accommodation & Food Services; Mining; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Construction; Utilities; and Educational Services. Six industries reported a decrease in new export orders in July, in the following order: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Information; Transportation & Warehousing; Wholesale Trade; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. Six industries indicated no change in new export orders in July.

Imports
The Imports Index contracted in July for the second consecutive month, registering 48 percent, up 1.7 percentage points from June's practicing of 46.3 percent. Eighty percent of respondents reported that they do not use, or do not track the use of, imported materials.

The seven industries reporting an increase in imports for the month of July — listed in order — are: Mining; Information; Transportation & Warehousing; Educational Services; Utilities; Wholesale Trade; and Health Care & Social Assistance. The five industries that reported a decrease in imports in July are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Other Services; and Accommodation & Food Services. Six industries reported no change in imports in July.

Inventory Sentiment
The ISM^® Services Inventory Sentiment Index grew in July after four previous months of contraction, registering 50.1 percent, a 3.9-percentage point increase from June's figure of 46.2 percent. This practicing indicates that respondents feel their inventories are slightly high when correlated to business activity levels.

The five industries reporting sentiment that their inventories were too high in July are: Retail Trade; Health Care & Social Assistance; Information; Wholesale Trade; and Utilities. The six industries reporting a feeling that their inventories were too low in July — listed in order — are: Accommodation & Food Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Educational Services; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Construction. Six industries reported no change in July.

About This Report
DO NOT CONFUSE THIS NATIONAL REPORT with the various regional purchasing reports released across the country. The national report's information reflects the entire U.S., while the regional reports contain primarily regional data from their local vicinities. Also, the information in the regional reports is not used in calculating the results of the national report. The information compiled in this report is for the month of July 2022.

The data presented herein is obtained from a survey of supply executives in the services sector based on information they have collected within their respective organizations. ISM^® makes no representation, other than that stated within this release, regarding the individual company data collection procedures. The data should be compared to all other economic data sources when used in decision-making.

Data and Method of Presentation
The Services ISM^® Report On Business^® (formerly the Non-Manufacturing ISM^® Report On Business^®) is based on data compiled from purchasing and supply executives nationwide. Membership of the Services Business Survey Committee (formerly Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee) is diversified by NAICS, based on each industry's contribution to gross domestic product (GDP). The Services Business Survey Committee responses are divided into the following NAICS code categories: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Mining; Utilities; Construction; Wholesale Trade; Retail Trade; Transportation & Warehousing; Information; Finance & Insurance; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Educational Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Accommodation & Food Services; Public Administration; and Other Services (services such as Equipment & Machinery Repairing; Promoting or Administering Religious Activities; Grantmaking; Advocacy; and Providing Dry-Cleaning & Laundry Services, Personal Care Services, Death Care Services, Pet Care Services, Photofinishing Services, Temporary Parking Services, and Dating Services). The data are weighted based on each industry's contribution to GDP. According to the BEA estimates for 2020 GDP (released December 22, 2021), the six largest services sectors are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Government; Professional, Scientific, & Technical Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Information; and Finance & Insurance. Beginning in February 2020 with January 2020 data, computation of the indexes is accomplished utilizing unrounded numbers.

Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. For each of the indicators measured (Business Activity, New Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Inventory Change, Inventory Sentiment, Imports, Prices, Employment and supplier Deliveries), this report shows the percentage reporting each response and the diffusion index. Responses represent raw data and are never changed. Data is seasonally adjusted for Business Activity, New Orders, Prices and Employment. All seasonal adjustment factors are subject annually to relatively minor changes when conditions warrant them. The remaining indexes have not indicated significant seasonality.

The Services PMI^® is a composite index based on the diffusion indexes for four of the indicators with equal weights: Business Activity (seasonally adjusted), New Orders (seasonally adjusted), Employment (seasonally adjusted) and supplier Deliveries. Diffusion indexes have the properties of leading indicators and are convenient summary measures showing the prevailing direction of change and the scope of change. An index practicing above 50 percent indicates that the services economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. supplier Deliveries is an exception. A supplier Deliveries Index above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries and below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries.

A Services PMI^® above 50.1 percent, over time, indicates that the overall economy, or gross domestic product (GDP), is generally expanding; below 50.1 percent, it is generally declining. The distance from 50 percent or 50.1 percent is indicative of the strength of the expansion or decline.

The Services ISM^® Report On Business^® survey is sent out to Services Business Survey Committee respondents the first part of each month. Respondents are asked to ONLY report on U.S. operations for the current month. ISM^® receives survey responses throughout most of any given month, with the majority of respondents generally waiting until late in the month to submit responses to supply the most accurate picture of current business activity. ISM^® then compiles the report for release on the third business day of the following month.

The industries reporting growth, as indicated in the Services ISM^® Report On Business^® monthly report, are listed in the order of most growth to least growth. For the industries reporting contraction or decreases, those are listed in the order of the highest level of contraction/decrease to the least level of contraction/decrease.

ISM ROB Content
The Institute for Supply Management^® ("ISM") Report On Business^® (Manufacturing, Services and Hospital reports) ("ISM ROB") contains information, text, files, images, video, sounds, musical works, works of authorship, applications, and any other materials or content (collectively, "Content") of ISM ("ISM ROB Content"). ISM ROB Content is protected by copyright, trademark, trade secret, and other laws, and as between you and ISM, ISM owns and retains all rights in the ISM ROB Content. ISM hereby grants you a limited, revocable, nonsublicensable license to access and display on your individual device the ISM ROB Content (excluding any software code) solely for your personal, non-commercial use. The ISM ROB Content shall also contain Content of users and other ISM licensors. Except as provided herein or as explicitly allowed in writing by ISM, you shall not copy, download, stream, capture, reproduce, duplicate, archive, upload, modify, translate, publish, broadcast, transmit, retransmit, distribute, perform, display, sell, or otherwise use any ISM ROB Content.

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About Institute for Supply Management^®
Institute for Supply Management^® (ISM^®) serves supply management professionals in more than 90 countries. Its 50,000 members around the world manage about US$1 trillion in corporate and government supply chain procurement annually. Founded in 1915 as the first supply management institute in the world, ISM is committed to advancing the practice of supply management to drive value and competitive advantage for its members, contributing to a prosperous and sustainable world. ISM leads the profession through the ISM^® Report On Business^®, its highly regarded certification programs and the ISM^® Advance^™ Digital Platform. This report has been issued by the association since 1931, except for a four-year interruption during World War II.

The full text version of the Services ISM^® Report On Business^® is posted on ISM^®'s website at www.ismrob.org on the third business day* of every month after 10:00 a.m. ET.

The next Services ISM^® Report On Business^® featuring August 2022 data will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET on Tuesday, September 6, 2022.

*Unless the New York Stock Exchange is closed.

View original content to obtain multimedia:https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/services-pmi-at-56-7-july-2022-services-ism-report-on-business-301598327.html

SOURCE Institute for Supply Management

The Center for Global Education at Asia Society has partnered with ACTE and Advance CTE to create online professional development modules that support CTE teachers to teach STEM through global content utilizing active, project-based learning. These short, 15–20 minute modules, are self-paced and available through ACTE's CTELearn platform. Descriptions of each module are below together with related activity guides and resources featured in each module. All materials are free of charge due to generous support from the Project Management Institute Educational Foundation (PMIEF).

Course Modules

Module 1: Global Workforce Readiness Skills—A New Imperative

One in ten Americans is foreign born, and local communities—urban, suburban, and rural—are growing more diverse. One in five jobs is tied to international trade. This means that CTE educators face a critical new imperative: to prepare all students for work and civic roles in an environment where success increasingly requires the ability to work with people from diverse backgrounds in global markets.

This introductory module answers the essential question, "As the world becomes more interconnected, how do I ensure my CTE students are prepared with the skills to connect, compete, and collaborate in a global economy?"

At the completion of the module and related tasks, the CTE instructor will be able to:

• Define global competence and its importance to high-quality CTE programs and career pathways
• Describe the steps required to integrate global workforce readiness skills into CTE instruction
• Explain how global skills align to their current instructional sequence and course structure
• Communicate how workforce readiness skills taught in the classrooms will intersect with real-world STEM-related situations

Module 1 Activity Guide and Resources

Module 2: Making Local/Global STEM Connections

Globally minded CTE programs can provide the rigorous and authentic setting necessary to prepare students for the competitive world economy, while offering a more engaging, motivating, and relevant education experience.

This module will help CTE educators make natural global connections to their current instruction. It introduces the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and provides a process for connecting these goals to local challenges. By the end of the module, instructors will be prepared to integrate local and global connections into projects to more deeply engage students.

At the completion of the module and related tasks, the CTE instructor will be able to:

• Connect potential local issues to global issues using the UN SDGs
• Identify the CTE, STEM, academic and workforce readiness skills to be achieved through a globally focused STEM project
• Create a global STEM project overview aligned to current instruction

Module 2 Activity Guide and Resources

• Activity Guide
• What Matters to You? Activity. Developed by Asia Society, the What Matters to Young People activity is a facilitated process to identify and determine projects that students care about. It's an excellent way to incorporate student choice into the classroom.

Module 3: Designing Your Global STEM Project

This module will equip instructors in designing, developing, and seeking resources for high-quality, project-based, global STEM projects. It will introduce the instructor to the six criteria outlined in A Framework for High Quality Project Based Learning (PBL), developed by the Buck Institute for Education. It will train instructors to use a common template for PBL lesson plans to teach global workforce readiness skills though STEM.

At the completion of the module and related tasks, the CTE instructor will be able to:

• Explain the six criteria for high quality PBL
• Begin designing a global STEM project plan that integrates global competence
• Use the SAGE framework to create a STEM project with a global connection
• Align high-quality, global STEM projects to their course structure and instructional sequence

Module 3 Activity Guide and Resources

Module 4: Assessing Global STEM Project Based Learning

This module will expand an instructor's options for real-world, authentic assessment of the global PBL experience. It will demonstrate how to observe, assess, and discuss global workforce readiness skills at appropriate times throughout the project. Strategies and examples for expert, peer, and self-evaluation will be included.

At the completion of the module and related tasks, the CTE instructor will be able to:

• Define authentic assessment
• Highlight different forms of assessment that can enhance the global STEM project learning experience
• Authentically assess student growth in global workforce readiness skills and project management using a variety of strategies

Module 4 Activity Guide and Resources

Module 5: Facilitating Globally Connected Projects Through Student Project Management, Part 1

In order to more successfully complete their projects, students need to hone the skills of project management. This module will help instructors define their role as a facilitator of learning during a global PBL experience. It will prepare them to empower students to lead the learning process and manage their projects successfully. It will also provide tools and techniques to train and coach students on successful project management.

At the completion of the module and related tasks, the CTE instructor will be able to:

• Understand the importance of developing project management skills in students
• Define their role as facilitator of a global project experience
• Apply a framework to support student success for the first two phases of project management: Initiating and Planning

Module 5 Activity Guide and Resources

Module 6: Facilitating Globally Connected Projects Through Student Project Management, Part 2

This module continues from Module 5 and examines the second two stages of project management, Executing and Closing.

At the completion of the module and related tasks, the CTE instructor will be able to:

• Apply a framework to support student success for the last two phases of project management: Executing and Closing
• Identify materials, resources and constraints, student supports, modifications, and extensions for a global STEM project

Module 6 Activity Guide and Resources

Module 7: Deep Dive into Global Competence and Respecting Diversity

The increase in diversity across our country means that students will be working and living with people from different backgrounds. It also means CTE instructors increasingly have diverse populations of students in their classrooms.

This module digs deeper into the importance of global competence for workforce readiness, specifically focusing on respect and empathy for diversity, both locally and abroad. Instructors will examine how to leverage the diversity in their classrooms and also how to encourage all students to pursue careers in STEM.

At the completion of the module and related tasks, the CTE instructor will be able to:

• Understand how to better engage students from diverse backgrounds in their learning
• Describe how global competence positively impacts a student’s respect for diversity and interest in pursuing STEM careers

Module 7 Activity Guide and Resources

Module 8: Enhancing Instruction Through Global Collaborative Projects

This module will introduce innovative ways to enhance the global STEM learning experience by connecting your students with students in another country. Examples will show how these connections enable students to work as part of a global team with people from diverse backgrounds. It will also include best practices for creating and leading collaborative global STEM project experiences.

At the completion of the module and related tasks, the CTE instructor will be able to:

• Describe the value of international classroom connections as part of STEM project experiences
• Collaborate with a teacher(s) in another country to create global STEM experiences
• Implement best practices in collaborative global STEM projects

Module 8 Activity Guide and Resources

Module 9: Developing Global Workforce Readiness Skills Through CTSOs and Service Learning

This module unpacks how the tools used to organize and complete a project in the classroom can be applied by students in Career and Technical Student Organizations (CTSOs) activities, including service learning. CTSOs provide an excellent environment for students to develop global workforce readiness and project management skills.

Students can utilize project management to complete service projects and prepare for CTSO competitions. Adding a global connection to these activities will provide students an advantage in the interconnected workplace as well as when they are competing with students across the country-or the world-in CTSO competitions.

At the completion of the module and related tasks, the CTE instructor will be able to:

• Identify opportunities for students to develop global STEM and project management skills through CTSO and service learning activities
• Equip students to use the four domains of global competence and PMI resources to complete a global STEM project through CTSO and service learning activities

Module 9 Activity Guide and Resources

Module 10: Integrating Academics Into Global STEM in CTE

Global STEM projects provide an excellent way to integrate academic content, including math, science, art, world languages, language arts, and more into CTE curriculum. This module unlocks how to make natural connections between academic and technical content in each project.

At the completion of the module and related tasks, the CTE instructor will be able to:

• Identify natural connections between academic and CTE content
• Locate and apply academic and CTE standards alignment resources

Module 10 Activity Guide and Resources

Microcredential Information

• Microcredentials:
  • If you are interested in further developing your global competence skills, Digital Promise offers micro credentials. These can be earned by educators as they complete global projects with their students.

Project Partners

The Association for Career and Technical Education (ACTE) is the largest national education association dedicated to the advancement of education that prepares youth and adults for careers. Their mission is to provide educational leadership in developing a competitive workforce. With over 29,000 members in every U.S. state, their membership and reach will be instrumental to this project.

Asia Society is the leading educational organization dedicated to promoting mutual understanding and strengthening partnerships among peoples, leaders, and institutions of Asia and the United States in a global context. Across the fields of arts, business, culture, education, and policy, the Society provides insight, generates ideas, and promotes collaboration to address present challenges and create a shared future.

Advance Cte: State Leaders Connecting Learning to Work is the longest-standing national nonprofit that represents State Directors and state leaders responsible for secondary, postsecondary and adult Career Technical Education (CTE) across all 50 states and U.S. territories. Advance CTE was formerly known as the National Association of State Directors of Career Technical Education Consortium (NASDCTEc).

Funder

PMI Educational Foundation: The mission of the PMI Educational Foundation, a charitable nonprofit organization, is to inspire and empower people to realize their potential and transform their lives and their communities through the use of project management knowledge. Our vision is that all people worldwide have a better tomorrow by applying project management skills in their daily lives.