The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) contracted in September to 49.9, data from the Singapore Institute of Purchasing and Materials Management (SIPMM) showed. Compared to last month, the PMI dipped by 0.1 points.

September marks the "first-time contraction for the overall manufacturing PMI after 26 consecutive months of expansion," according to the SIPMM.

The decline in the PMI was attributed to the contraction in the electronics sector, which decreased by 0.2 points to 49.4.

SIPMM said the decline in the overall PMI could also be due to a "faster contraction in the key indexes of new orders, new exports, factory output, and a contraction in the employment index."

"Global markets are still grappling with the macroeconomic risks of high inflation and quantitative tightening, as well as the geopolitical uncertainties of the continuing Russo-Ukrainian war.," the SIPMM added.

PMI survey data produced around the world by S&P Global have an unrivalled reputation for providing advance insights into changing economic conditions, being widely used to anticipate changes in official macroeconomic data such as GDP, industrial production, inflation and employment.

However, the surveys can also provide valuable, unique guidance on corporate earnings trends, as illustrated by the following case study from the United States.

S&P Global Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) survey data are widely used around the world by policymakers, governments, investors and businesses as a guide to macroeconomic trends.

The headline PMI data and its various sub-indices are commonly watched or incorporated into models to provide advance signals on key economic metrics such as GDP, production, employment, and inflation. As such, the PMIs are among some of the most market-moving economic data published each month.

To illustrate, our charts below plot the composite PMIs from S&P Global (covering output of both manufacturing and services) against GDP for the US and Eurozone. In both cases, it is evident that the PMI data provide useful guides to upcoming GDP data, which are released with a delay and tend to be more volatile than the PMI data, the latter providing a clearer trend to the underlying business cycle than the GDP numbers.

Not only can GDP often be distorted by one-off factors such as large trade or inventory swings (as reportedly seen in the US during early 2022), the GDP data are invariably revised after initial publication, often significantly (see Eurozone GDP comparison chart), meaning misleading signals can be sent to economy watchers.

Our PMI-based US earnings indicator exhibits a 74% correlation with changes in reported earnings per share for S&P 500 companies, acting with a lead of several months over the publication of earnings updates to provide analysts with an important monthly steer on corporate performance, anticipating every turning point in earnings over the past 14 years and providing clear insights into actual earnings growth rates.

Looking beyond macroeconomics

However, the surveys can be used beyond the realm of macroeconomic analysis, most notably providing powerful tools for understanding corporate earnings momentum.

By capturing changes in key business metrics such as sales, demand, pricing power, margins and productivity, the PMI surveys can provide very timely signals on underlying trends in profits and earnings.

Our chart below plots a simple composite indicator of US corporate earnings drawn from S&P Global's PMI data for the US against earnings growth momentum, as measured by the percentage charge in reported earnings per share (EPS) in any given quarter against the average earnings in the prior two quarters. This metric irons out some of the quarter-to-quarter earnings volatility and tends to provide a better guide to actual underlying earnings momentum.

We can also look at the trend in the earnings indicator by likewise comparing latest PMI values against the prior six months. This process removes some of the volatility from the earnings indicator to Strengthen the signal quality, and also improves the correlation with EPS, which reaches 74% with the monthly indicator published ahead of the EPS data.

Earnings under pressure

The PMI-based indicator, updated in these graphics to August, is currently pointing to the sharpest downward pressure on earnings since the global financial crisis (excluding the initial pandemic lockdown months in the first comparison).

This reflects falling demand for goods and services, a margin squeeze from cooling selling price inflation, declining productivity and a broad reduction of pricing power as supply runs ahead of demand for a wide variety of products and services.

In more detail, we look at the five components of the PMI-based earnings indicator below.

• New orders for goods and services (weight 34%)

New order inflows provide an insight into recent demand conditions, and the survey data have signalled a drop in new orders for both goods and services in August, which means near-term demand growth is now exerting a negative influence on corporate earnings to a degree not seen since the initial months of the pandemic.

• Backlogs of uncompleted work (weight 24%)

Backlogs of work indicate the extent to which demand is running ahead of supply, or vice versa. Whereas much of the pandemic period saw demand running ahead of supply, both for goods and services, the situation has now reversed, meaning companies are not only coming under pressure to reduce production (or business activity levels), but are also facing reduced pricing power. The drag to earnings from falling backlogs of work is now in fact the steepest recorded since the global financial crisis.

• Supplier performance (weight 10%)

Supplier performance is measured by the PMI index of provider delivery times and acts as a proxy for capacity constraints in the economy. Capacity constraints in turn provide a steer on pricing power - and in particular the shifting from a buyers'- to sellers'-market.

The pandemic was characterised by supply delays which gave sellers increased pricing power, but in recent months, these delays have started to moderate to the extent that a shift to a buyers market is approaching.

Hence the supply performance component of the indicator is now signalling a drag on corporate earnings performance, and to a degree not seen since survey data were first available in 2007.

• Labour productivity (weight 7%)

Output per hour is a key ingredient of corporate profitability and hence earnings growth, thus we use the ratio of the PMI surveys' output and employment sub-indices to provide a gauge of labour productivity in the earnings indicator.

Across both manufacturing and services, August saw output decline yet employment continue to rise, albeit at a reduced rate. Hence the surveys are now indicating declining labour productivity in the US, which is therefore exerting a negative influence on earnings. The degree of this negative pull is the strongest recorded since survey data were first available in 2007.

Application to all major economies and stock market sectors

The advantage of the PMI is that earnings indicators such as the simple model described above can be compiled for each country and all major market sectors covered by the surveys.

This can therefore provide an unrivalled tool with which to determine and benchmark corporate performance, to build sector rotation models and Strengthen decision making - both from policy and investment perspectives.

Original Post

Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.

The seasonally adjusted Absa Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) once again declined in September. The index fell to 48.2, from 52.1 in August and averaged 49.3 points in Q3.

More intense load-shedding during the month was likely to blame for the decline relative to August. Indeed, the business activity index plummeted to 38.5 points, from 50.6 in August, with some respondents citing electricity supply disruptions as the cause for the decline in production.

At 43, the average for the business activity index in Q3 is well below the neutral 50-point mark and even below the Q2 average (45). This underscores the serious constraint that load-shedding, at elevated stages, puts on activity growth. Even if it does not have a direct impact on curtailing output, some respondents flagged that load-shedding weighs on demand for their products due to lower activity elsewhere. Speaking of demand, the new sales orders index fell sharply from 48.6 in August to 40 in September.

In addition to subdued domestic demand, the weakening external environment, reflected in the fourth consecutive decline in the export index, likely also contributed to the decline in orders. Respondents also turned less optimistic about business conditions going forward.

The index tracking expected business conditions in six months’ time fell back to 51.2 from 57.9 in August and an average of 61.5 in the first six months of the year. Concerns about the persistence of load-shedding, the health of the global economy and perhaps the lingering impacts of higher borrowing costs likely affected sentiment.

Overall, the PMI results do not bode well for a strong recovery in actual manufacturing production from a bleak Q2. However, a normalisation in conditions from the (temporary) shocks weighing on output in Q2 – particularly in the automotive production value chain – should aid production.

This means that the sector is unlikely to perform as poorly as in Q2, but that a strong rebound also seems unlikely. It must be added that manufacturing production should post modest year-on-year growth in 2022Q3 after output was negatively affected by relatively strict lockdown restrictions and the looting and civil unrest in July 2021.

The purchasing price index continued to signal that cost pressures are cooling. The index moved lower for a third straight month to reach the lowest level since July last year.

Statistics South Africa’s official producer price inflation figure for final manufactured goods also ticked down (in August), with the PMI price index pointing to a further deceleration in September. This suggests that pipeline price pressure has probably peaked, although it remains at elevated levels. The recent weakness of the rand exchange rate (versus the US dollar) poses the biggest risk to a continuation of this encouraging trend over the near term.

The latest S&P Global U.S. purchasing managers index (PMI) numbers are out, and the results are mixed at best — indicating that inflation is abating some but is far from tamed.

The composite output PMI index came in at 49.3 for September, up from 44.6 in August, signaling a softer, marginal decline in private-sector business activity. An index score above 50 indicates business activity is expanding while a memorizing below 50 indicates it’s contracting.

“The decrease [in September] was … the slowest in the current three-month sequence of contraction,” S&P Global’s analysis of the results states.  “Although manufacturers continued to register a slight fall in production, service providers signaled a much slower pace of decline in output.”

The S&P Global U.S. PMI is based on a survey of some 800 companies in the manufacturing and services sectors. The data offer market observers an important insight into the direction of inflation and recession concerns “as it reflects whether industries are growing or shrinking, as well as supply and demand,” according to financial advisory firm Mortgage Capital Trading.

As expected, the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee this week, in an effort to combat rising inflation, announced in a unanimous vote a decision to raise the federal funds rate by 75 basis points, to a target range of 3% to 3.25%. The Fed projects that benchmark rate will rise to 4.4% by year’s end, which signals at least one more 75 basis point bump ahead — with two more Fed policy meetings slated for this year.

Further, according to the Fed’s projections, unemployment is expected to hit 3.8% this year, up from 3.7% as of August, and rise to 4.4% in 2023. The S&P Global PMI results for September are not likely to help dissuade the Fed from staying the course with its aggressive monetary policy, which is driving up mortgage rates as well, creating major headwinds for the housing industry.

The interest rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage jumped 27 basis points week over week, to 6.29%, according to Freddie Mac’s latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey current as of Sept. 22. MCT projected Friday morning, Sept. 23, that mortgage rates “will likely be under upward pressure” again “given early trading levels.”

Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said including the September PMI results, U.S. companies have now recorded a third consecutive monthly decline in output, but he also points out that the rate of contraction — an indicator of the direction of future inflation — moderated in September, compared with August.

“There was also better news on inflation, with provider shortages easing to the lowest since October 2020, helping take some of the pressure off raw material prices,” he added. “These improved supply chains, accompanied by the marked softening of demand since earlier in the year, helped cool overall the rate of inflation of both firms’ costs and average selling prices for goods and services to the lowest since early 2021. 

“Inflation pressures nevertheless remain elevated by historical standards and, with business activity in decline, the surveys continue to paint a broad picture of an economy struggling in a stagflationary environment.”

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The report is based on surveys of over 300 business executives in private sector services companies.

Data is usually released on the third working day of each month.Each response is weighted according to the size of the company and its contribution to total manufacturing or services output accounted for by the sub-sector to which that company belongs.

Replies from larger companies have a greater impact on the final index numbers than those from small companies. Results are presented by question asked, showing the percentage of respondents reporting an improvement, deterioration or no change since the previous month.From these percentages, an index is derived: a level of 50.0 signals no change since the previous month, above 50.0 signals an increase (or improvement), below 50.0 a decrease (or contraction).

Traders watch these surveys closely as purchasing managers usually have early access to data about their company’s performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance.

A higher than expected memorizing should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR , while a lower than expected memorizing should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.

The Chicago Business Barometer, also known as the Chicago PMI, dropped sharply to 45.7 in September from 52.2 in the prior month. 

Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal forecast a 51.8 reading. 

Readings below 50 indicate contracting conditions.

India’s manufacturing activity lost a bit of momentum in September as it hit 55.1, as against August’s 56.2. Despite cooling down from August, rates of expansion remained historically high, said S&P Global India Manufacturing PMI. The S&P report stated that manufacturing PMI was in expansion for the 15th month in a row.

The report added that companies hired extra workers and acquired more inputs in order to accommodate higher sales. “The upturn in input buying was aided by cooling price pressures. Purchasing costs rose at the slowest pace in just under two years, while output charge inflation receded to a seven-month low,” it said.

Pollyanna De Lima, Economics Associate Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said, “The latest set of PMI data show us that the Indian manufacturing industry remains in good shape, despite considerable global headwinds and recession fears elsewhere.”

Factory orders continued to increase at the end of the second quarter, but has eased to its weakest since June. There was a greater demand from domestic and international clients. Export orders increased too – the sixth in consecutive months, and the fastest since May.

New orders, international sales and output increased in each of the three broad areas of the manufacturing industry, it said.

Good producers saw a weaker inflationary environment in September as input costs rose at the slowest pace since October 2020. As much as 8 per cent companies reported higher purchasing prices, but 91 per cent signalled no change. “This retreat in cost inflationary pressures helped curtail the latest upturn in selling prices, which was modest and the slowest in seven months,” it said.

Employment rose in the quickest pace in three months. Despite this, companies saw a further increase in outstanding business volumes. Backlogs rose at a slight rate.

“To fulfil sales requirements, Indian manufacturers dug deeper into their inventories in September. Stocks of finished goods fell at the fastest pace since February,” it said.

"Once again we saw businesses become more confident in the outlook as inflation worries were tamed. The overall level of positive sentiment seen in September was the best in over seven-and-a-half years. That said, currency risks and the impact of a weaker rupee on inflation and interest rates could derail optimism during October,” said De Lima.

Also read: Manufacturing PMI hits 56.2 in August vs 56.4 in July; sectoral hiring remains muted

Also read: Services activity grew faster in Aug; hiring at over 14-yr high: PMI

LONDON, Oct 3 (Reuters) - British manufacturing output fell for a third month in a row in September and orders declined for a fourth consecutive month, hurt by falling foreign demand, according to a closely watched survey released on Monday.

The S&P Global manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 48.4 from August's 27-month low of 47.3 but remained below the 50-level that separates growth from contraction and was a fraction weaker than the initial 'flash' estimate of 48.5.

"September saw new export business contract at the quickest pace since May 2020, with reports of lower demand from the U.S., the EU and China," S&P Global said.

"Manufacturers faced weak global market conditions, rising uncertainty, high transportation costs reducing competitiveness and longer lead times leading to cancelled orders," it added.

The most recent official data showed manufacturing output grew by 1.1% in the year to July.

Britain's economy is on the cusp of recession as households and businesses wrestle with rising energy costs, a jump in borrowing costs and a volatile currency which struck a record low against the U.S. dollar on Sept. 26.

While in theory a weak pound should boost demand for British exports, by making them cheaper for overseas buyers, past currency falls in 2008 and 2016 had little effect.

Sterling weakness does raise the cost of imports of fuel and raw materials - which are often priced in dollars - and the PMI showed that input cost inflation rose for the first time in five months, partly due to the weaker pound.

"A broad range of inputs were reported as up in price, including chemicals, electronics, foodstuffs, metals, packaging, plastics and timber," S&P Global said.

The Bank of England's chief economist, Huw Pill, has said a significant rise in interest rates is likely to be needed in November, in light of looser fiscal policy at a time when inflation is close to a 40-year high.

Reporting by David Milliken; Editing by Hugh Lawson

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